NZD/USD heads into the release around 0.57, having recovered part of its slide to a mid-October low, its weakest level since April 2025. A headline print at or above 3.9%, or firmer core readings, would likely lock in hike pricing and support the kiwi. A result near 3.7% could trim those odds at the margin without derailing them. Beyond today’s number, oil remains the dominant driver: with crude elevated and the currency weaker, imported energy costs are set to keep New Zealand’s inflation outlook, and the RBNZ’s tightening bias, tilted to the upside into year-end.
New Zealand’s Q3 inflation is expected to ease only briefly, with oil and a softer currency already lining up a fourth-quarter rebound that keeps the RBNZ on a hiking path.
Summary:
New Zealand’s third-quarter consumer price index, due from Statistics NZ at 10:45am Wellington time on Thursday, is expected to show annual inflation easing to 3.8% from 4.1% in the June quarter, according to the median of 16 economists surveyed by Bloomberg. That would leave inflation well above the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s 1% to 3% target band, and only marginally below the central bank’s own 3.9% projection from its September Monetary Policy Statement.
On a quarterly basis, prices are forecast to rise 0.8%. That is a sharp slowdown from 1.5% in the second quarter and matches the RBNZ’s projection exactly. The easing largely reflects lower average fuel costs over the quarter, after the Middle East conflict pushed pump prices sharply higher in the June period. Westpac estimates that cheaper petrol and diesel will take around 0.4 percentage points off quarterly inflation.
Forecasts span a relatively wide range. Westpac sits at the low end at 3.7%. It expects a 0.7% quarterly rise as softer fuel prices are offset by higher council rates, building costs and food prices. ANZ forecasts 3.8% and BNZ 3.9%, while other economists see annual inflation holding at 4.0%. Westpac also expects core inflation measures to remain firm, with some closely watched gauges seen rising to the top of the RBNZ’s target band.
The release is the last major data point before the RBNZ’s October 28 decision. The central bank lifted the Official Cash Rate to 2.75% in September, and swaps markets price around an 80% chance of a further quarter-point increase to 3.00%. ING said it expects a 25 basis point hike barring a major downside surprise. It added that even a small upside surprise would reinforce expectations of a move.
Economists broadly view any third-quarter easing as temporary. Renewed hostilities in the Middle East have pushed New Zealand fuel prices back above their April highs. The New Zealand dollar is also trading roughly 4% below the average level the RBNZ assumed for the fourth quarter. Some local forecasts now see annual inflation accelerating to as high as 4.7% in the December quarter, against the RBNZ’s 3.9% projection. RBNZ chief economist Paul Conway has flagged upside risk to the near-term outlook from oil and the currency.
The core inflation detail may matter as much as the headline. ANZ has said the RBNZ will be watching for signs that higher fuel costs are spreading into broader price pressures. That test will shape not only next week’s decision but also the path into December, when the bank is next scheduled to publish fresh forecasts.
This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.
Source: Investing Live - Central Bank
