Forex This Morning
In the European morning, EUR/USD began to gain momentum and moved up towards 1.0600 after varying throughout the Asian session in a relatively constrained channel. Although the technical picture for the pair has not yet developed directional momentum, a bullish Wall Street opening would discourage sellers.
Late on Saturday, the US Congress approved a short-term financing measure to prevent a government shutdown. The government will be supported through November 17 and the previous budget will be extended by 45 days. The market attitude on Monday appears to be improving as a result of this development. US stock index futures were up between 0.5% and 0.8% as of the time of publication. The US Dollar (USD) may continue to lose appeal as a safe haven currency if US stocks gain bullish momentum following the opening bell, which would pave the way for a prolonged EUR/USD recovery.
For the past year, Jerome Powell, the chairman of the Federal Reserve, has emphasised the same point: the Fed’s decisions are driven by data. The Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) number on October 5 will determine whether or not the Fed decides to raise interest rates. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, there is a 69% chance that interest rates will stay in the range of 5.25% to 5.50%.
The probability that the two-month slide in Bitcoin could be ended is increased by its rise to a minor resistance at the mid-September high of 27500. The higher-top-higher-bottom structure that has been in place since the end of 2022 has continued to hold above solid support at the June low of 24750. Importantly, considering the severe decrease in 2021–2022, this maintains the chance of a future comeback.
Currently, the 200-day moving average and the end-of-August high of 28150 are being tested by BTC/USD as a significant ceiling.