Adyen cut its 2026 profit margin forecast to 50% today (Wednesday) and dropped its target of a margin above 55% by 2028. It will spend more on Talon.One and Orb, two loyalty and billing firms it acquired.
Merchant demand for the combined offer came in stronger than planned, the Dutch payments company said.
The forecast is three percentage points below Adyen's 2025 EBITDA margin of 53%, and two below the roughly 52% implied in August, when it said the two deals would trim about one point from this year's margin.
Investors now have no profit target beyond 2026 until February, when Adyen will publish its 2027 objectives. The shares fell as much as 13% in early Amsterdam trading and were down about 11% at €837.10 by 9:42 a.m. CET, against €944.00 at Tuesday's close.
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The margin cut came with a quarter that beat revenue forecasts. Net revenue rose 23% year over year to €738.1 million in the three months to September 30, or 22% at constant currency.
Analysts had expected €730.3 million, according to a company-compiled consensus cited by Reuters. Processed volume rose 30% to €451.1 billion.
Adyen's Margin Guidance Has Fallen Twice This Year
Measured by EBITDA margin, the profit benchmark Adyen guides on, the outlook has moved down at each update in 2026 and now matches a slower-growing European rival.
In February Adyen expected the 2026 margin to stay broadly in line with 2025 and to pass 55% by 2028. In August it reported a first-half margin of 49%, or 50% excluding acquisition costs, and kept the 2028 goal.
That leaves Adyen planning on the margin Nexi already runs at. The Italian processor reported a first-half EBITDA margin of 50.1% while its merchant revenue slipped 0.8%. Adyen is growing net revenue 23% for roughly the same margin.
Outlook Changes Have Moved the Stock Before
Wednesday's drop is smaller than two earlier sell-offs over growth or guidance. The shares fell nearly 39% in one day in August 2023, after first-half results showed slower growth.
They lost more than 20% shortly after the open in February this year, when Adyen guided for a flat 2026 margin, MarketScreener reported.
Spending Follows Two July Acquisitions
Adyen said merchant interest in combining payments with loyalty, billing and financial products had been stronger and broader than it expected, so it is accelerating planned investment in the Talon.One and Orb teams.
Co-CEO Ingo Uytdehaage said the company sees "a significant opportunity ahead" and is "accelerating our investments across the business to capture it in full."
The two companies brought 399 employees with them, taking Adyen to 5,596 full-time staff at the end of September. It now plans to add 1,000 to 1,100 net new employees in 2026 including the deals, while its underlying hiring target of 550 to 650 is unchanged.
Orb, a usage-based billing platform, gives Adyen a route into AI-native companies, the company said. Since the deal closed, Adyen has won the payment volumes of several Orb clients, including Route and Wasabi Technologies.
Platforms Lead Growth Across Three Segments
Smaller merchants signed up through software platforms drove the fastest growth. Platforms net revenue rose 46% to €100.2 million, and 46 platform customers now process more than €1 billion a year, up from 37 a quarter earlier and 31 a year ago.
Unified Commerce, which combines in-store and online payments, grew 29% to €250.5 million with the first revenue from Talon.One, in what Adyen described as a subdued retail market. Digital, the largest segment, grew 16% to €387.4 million on higher volumes from its biggest customers.
Adyen's quarterly volume has grown about 41% in two years, by FinanceMagnates.com's calculation, from €320.6 billion in the third quarter of 2024.
Adyen kept its 2026 net revenue growth forecast of 21% to 23% at constant currency. It expects capital expenditure of 7% of net revenue this year, falling back toward historical levels after 2026.
Niclas Neglen, nominated as chief financial officer, is due to start on February 1, 2027, subject to regulatory and shareholder approval.
This article was written by Damian Chmiel at www.financemagnates.com.
Source: Finance Magnates
