Details of the Canada GDP for the month of August:
August real GDP: 0.0% MoM. Prior 0.0%.
September advance estimate: -0.1% MoM.
Q3 preliminary growth indication: +0.3% QoQ, not annualized.
Breadth: 9 of 20 industrial sectors expanded in August.
Services-producing industries: -0.1%.
Goods-producing industries: +0.1%.
Key August sector details:
Retail trade: +1.2%, led by motor vehicle and parts dealers.
Manufacturing: +0.3%, supported by machinery and petroleum refining.
Wholesale trade: -1.4%, the largest drag on growth.
Public sector: -0.2%, partly reflecting the winding down of Census work.
Oil and gas extraction: -1.2%, its third consecutive monthly decline.
Utilities: -0.4%, weighed down by nuclear maintenance outages.
Canada’s economy stalled for a second consecutive month in August, according to Statistics Canada’s gross domestic product (GDP) by industry report. The softer detail came in the forward estimate: output is projected to have declined 0.1% in September, suggesting the economy lost momentum heading into the end of the third quarter. The industry-based figures point to 0.3% quarterly growth in Q3, subject to confirmation in the official quarterly release.
August’s flat headline masked considerable movement underneath. Retail trade rebounded 1.2%, more than reversing July’s contraction, while machinery production and a recovery in petroleum refining supported manufacturing. Those gains were offset by weaker wholesale trade, lower public-sector activity and another decline in oil and gas extraction. Auto production was particularly weak, with motor vehicles and parts manufacturing down 5.8% amid a prolonged summer plant shutdown.
Quick analysis: Two flat months followed by a projected decline suggest an economy struggling to build momentum. The retail rebound is encouraging, but growth was narrow, with fewer than half of industrial sectors expanding. Some weakness reflects maintenance outages, auto shutdowns and the winding down of Census activity, which limits how much can be attributed to softer underlying demand.
For the Bank of Canada, the growth figures could strengthen the case for easier policy if inflation allows. In isolation, weaker growth would normally weigh on Canadian yields and the Canadian dollar, creating an upward bias for USDCAD. The next checkpoint is November 30, when September GDP and the official Q3 income-and-expenditure estimates are released.
What this report measures: GDP by industry tracks inflation-adjusted production across Canada’s economy. Monthly changes show whether activity is expanding or contracting and which industries are driving it. The advance estimate is preliminary and subject to revision; the official quarterly income-and-expenditure report provides a separate measure of overall growth.
Looking at the USDCAD chart below, the price of the USDCAD moved lower with the USD, but after testing the 61.8% of the move up from the August low, is boucing modestly. That level comes in at 1.39497. The price, however, needs to get and stay above the high of the swing area at 1.3963 to give the dip buyers at the 61.8% some hope.
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.
Source: Investing Live - News
