A move in the official manufacturing PMI back above 50 would be read as a modest positive for China-sensitive assets, including the Australian dollar, the yuan and industrial metals. For oil, the question is whether the data changes the view on Chinese fuel demand, and a soft non-manufacturing print would keep demand worries alive. With mainland participants away for a week from Thursday, any surprise could be amplified in offshore trade. A miss on the official readings alongside a softer RatingDog services print would likely leave traders cautious into the break.
---
China's September PMIs land in a single session before the holiday, with official manufacturing forecast to edge back above 50 while private-sector services momentum is seen fading slightly.
Summary:
China will publish its September purchasing managers' indexes today, Wednesday, September 30, with both the official and private-sector surveys due in a single session because the country heads into a week-long holiday from Thursday, October 1. The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) manufacturing and non-manufacturing readings are scheduled for 01:30 GMT, which is 21:30 US Eastern time on Tuesday, September 29. The RatingDog China readings follow at 01:45 GMT, or 21:45 US Eastern. Composite readings are also due for each series.
Forecasts point to a modest improvement in the official manufacturing gauge, which is expected to rise to 50.1 from 49.8. That would put the index back above the 50 mark that separates expansion from contraction. The NBS non-manufacturing PMI is forecast at 49.3, up from 49.0, which would leave it below 50 even if the direction of travel is positive.
The RatingDog surveys are expected to show a steadier but slightly mixed picture. Manufacturing is forecast at 51.6 against a prior of 51.5, which would keep it comfortably in expansion territory. Services is seen at 51.1, down from 51.4, so a small softening is expected, although the reading would still sit above 50.
The priors show a clear gap between the two sets of surveys. Last month the official readings were below 50 in both manufacturing and non-manufacturing, while both RatingDog readings were above 51, a divergence that reflects the fact that the surveys are compiled separately. Traders will be watching whether today's data narrows that gap or leaves it intact.
The timing adds weight to the release. With the data arriving just before the holiday, it is the last full read on Chinese activity before the break, and China-sensitive markets such as the yuan, the Australian dollar and industrial commodities, including oil, will be watching closely. A manufacturing reading back above 50 would support the case for stabilisation, while a miss on the official gauges would reinforce the softer tone in the priors.
This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.
Source: Investing Live - News
