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ECB rate decision: No change in rates

Posted: 29th Oct 2026

The big news earlier today was ECB President Christine Lagarde announcing that she will depart in February.

Bank in April on Bloomberg TV she said: "When there is big clouds on the horizon, the captain does not leave the ship— and this captain is not going to leave the ship, because I see clouds."

So I guess she doesn't see clouds any longer.

In any case, here are the headlines:

  • Main refi rate 2.65% vs 2.65% expected
  • Deposit rate 2.50% vs 2.50% expected
  • Marginal lending facility at 2.90% vs 2.90% expected
  • Says energy prices continuing to rise, posing upside risks to inflation outlook and downside risks to growth
  • Underlying inflation has remainded broadly stable so far and wages do not show a material response at this stage
  • Well positioned to navigate uncertainty
  • ECB is not pre-committing to a particular path
  • ECB says stands ready to adjust all of its instruments within its mandate to ensure that inflation stabilizes at its 2% targetr

The market was pricing in a 13% chance of a surprise hike this month but that rises to 65% in December. Ahead of the decision, the euro was down 21 pips to 1.1131 as it hovers near the lows of the year. The knee-jerk reaction to the decision has been minimal.

EURUSD daily:

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Source: Investing Live - Central Bank

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