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ECB sources report: Policymakers see a December rate hike followed by a pause

Posted: 29th Oct 2026

Reuters ECB sources:

  • Policymakers see a hike in December followed by a pause
  • New staff estimates show higher bond yields cutting growth by cumulative 100 bps, inflation by 90 bps in 2027-28 versus baseline

That's a rough bite out of growth, especially if Lagarde is right and a portion of it is driven by hyperscaler borrowing to spend in the US and Asia.

The market pricing for a December hike is largely there already but I'm interested in the pause. They may be thinking that one more hike is enough, but I imagine that depends on what happens in the Iran and Ukraine wars.

We are seeing some modest selling in the euro on this, with the dovish 'pause' beyond Dec driving it.

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Source: Investing Live - Central Bank

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