The Nasdaq Composite and Nasdaq 100 closed at record levels to start the new trading week. Stocks found room to move higher even as longer-term Treasury yields rose and the dollar gained against most of the major currencies. Crude oil, meanwhile, finished lower after another headline-driven session.
The economic backdrop remains a balancing act. Friday’s softer jobs report eased concerns about an immediate Fed rate hike, but today’s ISM services report showed that demand continues to expand and price pressures remain elevated. For stocks, the attraction is continued growth with less urgency for another rate increase. The risk is that stubborn inflation and higher borrowing costs eventually spoil that combination.
Dollar higher against all but the AUD
The dollar was higher against six of the seven major currencies in the late-session snapshot. Its largest gain was against the New Zealand dollar, while the Australian dollar was the lone exception:
The euro also faced its own headwinds. France’s fiscal outlook and political uncertainty ahead of next year’s presidential election continued to weigh on confidence. InvestingLive’s European coverage highlighted the widening French borrowing-cost premium over Germany. That adds another layer of pressure on the euro beyond the U.S. rate story.
Treasury curve steepens
The late-session Treasury snapshot showed a split between the short and long ends of the curve:
The message? Less concern about an immediate Fed hike is helping the short end, but longer-term borrowing costs are still moving higher. Stocks absorbed that move today. Nevertheless, a 10-year yield above 5.30% remains a hurdle for valuations and financing costs.
Nasdaq indices close at records
All five major U.S. indices finished higher, with the Nasdaq Composite leading the gains:
The stronger Nasdaq performance was consistent with continued interest in technology and AI investment. However, there is still a reason to watch what is happening beneath the surface. InvestingLive’s credit-spread coverage highlighted widening spreads even as stocks benefited from reduced Fed hike expectations. If lenders are demanding more compensation for credit risk, that is a development equity traders should keep on their radar.
France lags in Europe
The major European markets mostly finished higher, with France the clear exception:
The divergence matters. France’s decline points to country-specific fiscal and political concerns rather than a broad retreat across European equities.
ISM services: Growth eases, prices accelerate
The September ISM Services PMI came in at 54.9 versus 55.2 expected and 55.4 last month. It was a modest miss, but the index remained above 50 for the 27th consecutive month.
The details were mixed:
For traders, a slightly softer headline does not automatically mean a softer inflation outlook. Companies still have orders to fill, employment stabilized, and costs accelerated. That gives the Fed a reason to remain cautious about declaring the inflation battle won. The supplied market commentary indicated little immediate reaction to the release.
Oil reverses its rally and settles lower
Crude oil finished lower after conflicting reports about Saudi energy infrastructure:
An initial AFP report that pumping through Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline had halted following an attack helped lift prices. Those gains were pared back after Bloomberg sources said the pipeline was flowing normally.
The broader supply picture also offered some relief. InvestingLive’s oil coverage pointed to recovering Gulf exports and a G7 reserve release as offsets to the ongoing threat of attacks on energy infrastructure.
Lower oil offers some help on inflation, but today’s Treasury move shows it was not enough to bring longer-term yields down. Middle East headlines remain capable of providing the next shove.
What carries into the next session?
Stock buyers kept control today, with both Nasdaq indices closing at records. The next test is whether that strength can continue while the 10-year yield holds above 5.30%. Keep an eye on the dollar’s broad gains, France’s borrowing-cost pressures and the next Middle East headline. Wednesday’s Fed minutes will provide another look at how officials balance softer employment data against persistent inflation.
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.
Source: Investing Live - News
