• RBNZ’s Conway says October rate decision completely open, OCR more likely to rise
• AUD lower: Australian jobs fall 39,300 in September, unemployment at five-year high of 4.7%
• BOJ’s Koeda says bank should not be overly cautious about raising rates
• Gold jumps around $40 as Treasury yields retreat from post-CPI high
• Talk grows that China is routing US Treasury holdings through Canada: Bloomberg
• Bolivia overhauls gold export rules to draw in dollars and lift bank deposits
• US weighs easing shadow fleet sanctions to cut record tanker freight rates
• Iran’s IRGC orders evacuation of military bases as US strike fears grow: reports
• Australian September 2026 unemployment rate 4.7% (expected 4.6%, prior 4.7%)
• CoreWeave bonds trade like distressed debt as AI spending outpaces balance sheets
• TSMC set for sixth straight record profit as AI demand lifts Q3 earnings
• ICYMI: Citi now expects a December Fed rate hike after hotter September US inflation
• US inflation is becoming less widespread, and that matters more than the headline rate suggests
• ASML says 2027 and 2028 supply will fall short of demand as Q3 sales hit a record
• Anthropic Q3 revenue rises 45% to $16.8 billion ahead of IPO
• Stablecoins have stopped growing. So why is usage still rising?
• Fed’s Daly: more rate hikes likely needed, but no urgency to move in October
• Fed catch up - Goolsbee calls CPI discouraging as Beige Book flags diesel-fuelled price pressure
• Oil catch up - price gains as Houthis strike Aramco and Iran flags new tactics against tankers
• Oil: Private survey of inventory shows a huge headline crude oil draw
• Barclays sees possible Tesla-SpaceX merger announcement before December

Summary:

• US Treasuries extended their rebound from post-CPI lows, with 10-year yields 21bp below their spike after Wednesday’s inflation data
• The US dollar fell broadly and gold rallied around $40, helped by lower yields and a Bloomberg report that China may hold more US debt than official data show
• Oil dipped after a Reuters report that the US is considering easing sanctions on shadow fleet tankers to cut freight rates and boost Gulf oil flows
• The Australian dollar was the exception in FX, falling after September employment dropped 39,300 and unemployment held at 4.7%
• The Fed’s Mary Daly said further rate hikes are more likely than not, but signalled no need to move in October. The BOJ’s Koeda said the bank should not be overly cautious about raising rates
• The Nikkei fell 3.5% and South Korea’s Kospi extended losses as the tech hardware selloff deepened
• Barclays said a Tesla and SpaceX merger announcement is possible before December, according to Bloomberg
• Anthropic’s Q3 revenue rose 45% to $16.8bn, Reuters reported. TSMC results are due, with its call at 0600 GMT

Treasuries lead, dollar and gold follow

US Treasuries extended their recovery during the Asian session, pushing 10-year yields 21 basis points below the high they reached after Wednesday’s hotter-than-expected US inflation data. The bond rally had wide effects across markets. The US dollar weakened against most major currencies, and gold climbed around $40.

Lower yields reduce the cost of holding gold, which pays no interest, and that supported the metal. Sentiment toward Treasuries also drew support from a Bloomberg report that China may be holding more US government debt than official figures show. A sharp rise in Canada’s reported holdings of US securities, to nearly $600 billion, has fuelled speculation that China is holding bonds through custodians outside the United States. The claims are unconfirmed.

Gold-related news from Bolivia had limited direct bearing on prices. The country is replacing a central bank certificate for gold exports with a requirement that exporters show the regulator SENARECOM that at least 80% of proceeds are deposited in local banks, aiming to boost dollar inflows and oversight, Bloomberg reported.

Oil

Oil prices edged lower after a US official told Reuters that Washington is considering easing sanctions on shadow fleet tankers to bring down record freight rates and increase oil flows from the Gulf. High fuel prices are a political risk for the administration ahead of the November 3 midterm elections.

Australian dollar falls on jobs data

The Australian dollar was the outlier in currency markets, falling while other major currencies gained against the US dollar. Australian employment unexpectedly fell in September, and the unemployment rate held at a five-year high of 4.7%. That prompted traders to scale back bets on another Reserve Bank of Australia rate hike.

Central banks

San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said further rate increases are more likely than not to be needed, according to a Reuters interview. She said the timing is still being considered and signalled no need to move at the October 27-28 meeting. Her comments followed remarks from Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee on Wednesday and the release of the Fed’s Beige Book.

In Japan, Bank of Japan board member Junko Koeda said the bank should not be overly cautious about raising rates, citing upside risks to prices and accommodative financial conditions. She put the neutral rate considerably above 1%, with the policy rate at around 1.25%. In New Zealand, RBNZ chief economist Paul Conway said the late-October decision is completely open, though the cash rate is still more likely to rise.

Stocks

The selloff in technology hardware stocks deepened in Asia, as chipmakers tracked losses on Wall Street amid concern over further Fed rate increases and the financing of artificial intelligence investment. Japan’s Nikkei fell more than 4%, led by SoftBank, Advantest, Tokyo Electron. South Korea’s Kospi extended its losses near 8%. Kosdaq fell too, the 8% decline triggering a 20 minute halt. 

Crypto

Bitcoin dropped briefly under USD81,000 with around US$485m in luquidations reported. 

Company news

Barclays said a merger announcement between Tesla and SpaceX is possible before December, according to Bloomberg. Further detail from the note was not immediately available. Anthropic’s third-quarter revenue rose 45% from the previous quarter to $16.8 billion, according to an investor who attended a pre-IPO meeting, Reuters reported. Revenue was $4.7 billion in the first quarter and $11.6 billion in the second.

Still to come

TSMC is expected to report a 65% rise in third-quarter net profit to NT$746.3 billion, about US$23.4 billion, according to an LSEG SmartEstimate. Any result above NT$706.56 billion would be a record and the company’s 11th straight quarter of profit growth. Its earnings call is at 0600 GMT, which is 5:00pm in Sydney and Melbourne.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Source: Investing Live - News