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RBA governor Bullock reaffirms that the central bank will raise interest rates again if needed

Posted: 29th Sep 2026

Bullock is commenting in her press conference:

  • We only considered holding rates and a 25 bps rate hike as our options today
  • Will raise interest rates again if needed
  • Inflationary pressures to last longer than expected
  • Inflation is driven by domestic capacity pressures
  • One upside risk to inflation risk has materialised, two are building
  • Need to bring excess demand down, a recession is not in our central case
  • Will not put too much emphasis on the August CPI number
  • We think that financial conditions are restrictive
  • If inflation does come down, then it is possible that no more rate hikes may be needed
  • Sees bond market reacting in an orderly way still, watching the situation closely

A couple of her comments above is taking the steam out of the supposedly hawkish decision in raising the cash rate to 4.60% today.

First, she mentions that they should not put "too much emphasis" on the inflation numbers due tomorrow. That is effectively a warning that markets should not extrapolate one strong CPI print into the possibility of another rate hike.

Then, she mentions that financial conditions are "restrictive". That suggests that policymakers are believing that existing policy is already doing meaningful work on demand. It's a subtle comment but one that put together with the others have more weight.

And lastly, she says that the rate hike today could even be the last for this year if further upside risks to inflation do not materialise or grow any deeper.

The market pricing for November still shows roughly 41% odds of another 25 bps rate hike. That is not too much changed from before the decision and Bullock's press conference.

However, AUD/USD has now fallen from around 0.7015 earlier to 0.6980 levels currently. That likely reflects the signal from Bullock in not confirming that the rate hike today is the beginning of another tightening sequence.

This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

Source: Investing Live - Central Bank

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