Bitcoin (BTC) edged 1.8% higher to $77,813 on Binance today (Friday), two days after the Federal Reserve's first rate hike since 2023 failed to push the cryptocurrency through its $75,000 floor. The bounce comes with a technical shift Bitcoin has not shown since November 2025: the 50-day exponential moving average (EMA) now sits above the 200-day line.
The golden cross turns the trend on my daily chart officially bullish. Price still has to clear the $82,614 ceiling of the consolidation before my $100,000 target becomes active.
Golden Cross Confirmed After Two Weeks of Convergence
On September 1, I wrote that the 50-day EMA was rising toward the 200-day and could produce Bitcoin's first golden cross since November 2025. The gap between the two averages was 3.17% at the time. By September 7, it had narrowed to 0.93%, as I noted in my follow-up analysis.
The cross printed on the September 12 daily close, based on my calculation from Binance BTC/USDT data. At the time of my chart, 08:07 UTC on Friday, the EMA 50 stood at $73,864.65 and the EMA 200 at $73,303.41, a gap of about $561.
A golden cross is a trend confirmation, not a price target. Bitcoin had already climbed from July lows below $60,000 before the averages met, so the signal says more about the direction of the trend than about the size of the next move.
Why $82,600 Decides the Path to $100,000
The upper boundary of the consolidation sits at $82,614.16, inside a wider supply band that runs to about $84,400. Every rally since late August has stalled below it, with the highest print at $82,300 on September 3.
A daily close above that ceiling is my trigger. The next resistance is the January zone between $98,068 and $99,486, which puts the round $100,000 level back in play. Measured from today's price, the top of that zone is nearly 28% away, or roughly $21,700. From the breakout level itself, the distance is about 20%.
Gideon Hyams, chairman and co-founder of STS Digital, drew a similar map before the Fed decision. In his view, a Fed signaling "one-and-done" tightening would set up "a clean break of $80,000, targeting $100,000."
The Fed Hiked and $75,000 Still Held
On Wednesday, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted 12-0 to lift the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 3.75%-4%, its first hike since July 2023. Sixteen of 18 officials now see another increase this year, and the median projection for 2027 rose to 4.1%.
That was closer to the hawkish outcome Hyams had warned would put $75,000 to the test. Bitcoin dipped to $74,968 on Tuesday, after the CLARITY Act setback hit crypto prices, and to $75,065 on Wednesday. Neither session closed below the floor.
Jeff Anderson, head of US at STS Digital, said on Thursday that markets were "trading suspiciously well" after the double blow. He pointed to lower dollar yields and the Nasdaq returning to recent highs, but flagged the end of September as a seasonally difficult stretch for risk assets.
Before the meeting, Hyams argued that investors do not need to pick the right Fed scenario to be positioned for it.
"For investors, the practical takeaway is that you do not need to call the outcome to be positioned for it. QIS strategies provide different systematic strategies for different environments. If the dots keep Bitcoin rangebound, as it was over the summer, yield harvesting strategies monetise the range and the elevated implied vol, so clients get paid while spot goes sideways. If the Fed surprises dovish and the range breaks higher, participation strategies capture the upside with defined risk. The point of running these systematically is that clients do not have to guess which Fed shows up at 2:30."
My chart reads the same split. As long as price stays between $75,338 and $82,614, the range rewards patience. With the golden cross in place, I see better odds that the eventual break comes on the upside.
Why the EMAs Are My Safety Net Below $75,000
Even a break of the lower boundary at $75,338.53 would not end the bullish structure on my chart. Directly below it sit the EMA 50 at $73,865 and the EMA 200 at $73,303, both rising. That band, about 5% to 6% below spot, should absorb a deeper sell-off.
Paul Howard, senior director at Wincent, placed the next support in the same area before the Fed decision. He said hawkish language could send Bitcoin below $75,000 and toward $72,000-$73,000.
The strongest counterpoint comes from Adam Haeems, head of asset management at Tesseract Group. His test for a genuine breakout is positive spot ETF flows, rising open interest measured in bitcoin rather than dollars, and a stalling real yield. Ahead of the decision, he said two of those three conditions were missing, with the 10-year inflation-protected Treasury yield at 2.62%, its highest close since November 2008.
A daily close below the EMA 200 would push the trend reading on my chart back to neutral. A close under $66,780, the next horizontal support, would invalidate the bullish setup altogether.
This article was written by Damian Chmiel at www.financemagnates.com.
Source: Finance Magnates
