Republicans are running out of time to turn it around ahead of the November 3 midterm elections.
Trump is increasingly a liability of the party as his approval hits a record low of just 31%. It's an ugly chart as it continues to deteriorate with an inflection following the March war in Iran.
Worse yet is the broader polling trend:
Democrats lead Republicans 47% to 35% on the generic congressional ballot.
That 12-point advantage is the largest of the current election cycle, according to Reuters/Ipsos.
The generic ballot doesn’t translate directly into seats but that is an uncomfortable gap for Republicans. If it carries through to election day, it points to an acrimonious final two years for Trump in the White House, including investigations on Epstein, the Iran war and corruption.
For markets, it's likely that Democrat control of the House has been priced in for some time but a complete rout could kick off a broader repudation of Trump, even by his own party. That could strengthen the agenda for peace in the Middle East and an end to the trade war. At the same time, Trump under constant investigations could make him more impulsive and combative.
There is also the question of how Trump responds to deteriorating polling and how he wants to manage his legacy. Does it encourage a more conciliatory approach aimed at delivering economic wins, or a harder push on his least-popular policies? Will he want to be remembered as the President that started an endless war with Iran?
I would be careful about treating this as an immediate dollar or equity-market signal. The more useful takeaway is that the risk of a constrained White House is becoming harder to ignore and we count down to the vote.
The poll was taken over four days ending today.
This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.
Source: Investing Live - News
