EUROPEAN SESSION
In the European session, we get lots of Eurozone data but the main highlights will be the inflation reports for France, Spain and Germany. We have also the Eurozone GDP report but the focus will likely be on inflation, as the ECB signalled yesterday that it's prepared to raise rates in December if the inflation outlook does not improve.
Therefore, inflation data (especially core inflation) and the Middle East develpments will be key. At the moment, the market is pricing a 64% probability of a rate hike December.
AMERICAN SESSION
In the American session, we get the Canadian monthly GDP and the US Employment Cost Index for Q3. The ECI is the most comprehensive report on wage growth and the Fed watches it closely. The only drawback is that it's not as timely as the Average Hourly Earnings data. The ECI is expected to tick lower to 0.8% vs 0.9% prior. A significant upside surprise could start challenging subdued wage growth narrative.
The Canadian GDP is expected at 0.2% vs 0.0% prior, but it's unlikely to change much for the Bank of Canada as the central bank leant on the cautious side with its forward guidance despite upgrading growth and inflation projections. Overall, the Canadian data isn't pointing to the extended tightening cycle that the market is pricing in.
CENTRAL BANK SPEAKERS
This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.
Source: Investing Live - News
