Analysts expect XTB to report third-quarter net profit of PLN 200.8 million (about $51 million) when it publishes preliminary results today (Wednesday). That is less than half its second-quarter profit of PLN 492.2 million.
The consensus of five forecasts, cited by Polish financial website Stockwatch.pl, is still nearly four times the PLN 53.2 million XTB earned a year earlier, when revenue fell 20% on low market volatility.
The Warsaw-listed broker made PLN 1.03 billion in the first six months of 2026, more than in all of 2025, while signing up a record 703,333 new clients.
The forecasts range from PLN 158 million to PLN 284 million, a wide spread for a broker whose income moves with client trading in contracts for difference (CFDs). Commodity CFDs alone produced 60.5% of XTB's second-quarter result on financial instruments, FM Intelligence data show.
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Estimates have missed in both directions. XTB's second-quarter profit beat the forecast of Noble Securities by 22%, while a year ago its third-quarter result came in at about a third of the PLN 150.3 million consensus, according to Bankier.pl.
Rivals' Third-Quarter Revenue Went Opposite Ways
Two London-listed CFD providers have already reported the quarter, and their revenue moved in opposite directions.
IG Group's revenue fell about 14% year on year, and the company cut its 2026 outlook as it kept a smaller share of client trading as income, while Plus500's rose 11% to $203.2 million and it now expects full-year results above market forecasts.
Noble Securities analyst Mateusz Chrzanowski, whose forecast is not part of the consensus, expects XTB's revenue to rise 68% year on year to PLN 630.9 million, well ahead of both rivals on growth. It would still be about 36% below the second quarter.
Noble Sees More Clients in a Calmer Quarter
Chrzanowski forecasts net profit of PLN 180.6 million, helped by close to PLN 30 million of currency gains, and 350,000 new clients. XTB added 333,292 clients in the second quarter and 370,041 in the first.
"Market volatility in 3Q26 normalized markedly," Chrzanowski said in comments published by Stockwatch.pl. He named gold, oil and US indices as the biggest contributors, though with a smaller effect than in the first half.
Trading had already slowed in the second quarter, when XTB's average monthly trading volume fell 26% from the first quarter, according to FM Intelligence's Broker Volumes data.
The analyst expects net deposits above PLN 6 billion, against PLN 5.89 billion in the second quarter, and no significant change in costs as marketing spending stays in check and bonuses fall.
Noble forecasts PLN 1.46 billion of net profit for 2026, which implies about PLN 253 million in the fourth quarter.
Shares Slid After the Founder's September Sale
XTB shares fell below PLN 150 after co-founder Jakub Zabłocki's investment vehicle sold 8% of XTB at PLN 160 a share in early September. They briefly dropped to around PLN 130 in October but remain up more than 100% this year, Stockwatch.pl reported.
The October decline followed mixed trading updates from rivals and reports of work on CFD rules in Poland, according to Stockwatch.pl. The Polish Financial Supervision Authority (KNF) said in August that its review of how firms sell CFDs to Polish clients was still open.
The same regulator approved XTB's request to manage client portfolios on October 23. XTB will discuss the quarter at a results conference tomorrow (Thursday) and publish its full quarterly report on November 20.
This article was written by Damian Chmiel at www.financemagnates.com.
Source: Finance Magnates
